Ireland and COVID-19

According to the novelist John Green, there is ‘no honour in illness’, likewise there is no honour in a poor response to one. The vastly different approaches to COVID-19 taken in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland put the entire island in danger. It is a stain on Irish politics that a failure to co-ordinate health policy on this issue threatens the efficacy of both approaches.

The Republic has followed a containment approach since the outbreak came into prominence in March. Northern Ireland followed the UK’s ‘ignore’ approach thus rendering the restrictions taken on the rest of the island redundant. Indeed, the Republic’s proactive strategy caused undue panic in the more laissez-faire Northern part of Ireland.

The Republic’s current approach is almost  a carbon copy of the measures taken regarding TB in the 1940’s. At that time provisions were made in legislation to isolate, and even forcefully isolate, TB patients. Indeed, the elimination of TB in Ireland largely came through the creation of the sanatorium.

TB and COVID are, as well publicised, vastly different diseases such that using sanatoriums for the airborne COVID-19 would be ineffective. Regardless, there is a demonstrated history of proactive health policy in the Republic. Thus the Republic will continue to tighten measures as long as the virus persists.

Thankfully, the curve has appeared to flatten in the Republic. New cases have declined from a high of 400 in late April to 20 yesterday. Government policy has worked south of the border but what about on the other side?

According to Dr. Bamford of Queen’s University Belfast, the COVID vaccine is about a year away, plenty of time for the situation to suddenly take a turn and get much worse. There are currently no available death rate figures for the North so it is impossible to gauge how many more, and it is more, people the lackadaisical UK response has killed in Northern Ireland compared to the south.

UK deaths are continuing to rise whilst the Republic’s death rate is falling so it is natural to assume Northern death rates are increasing. The people of Northern Ireland deserve better.

However, some immunologists expect another surge in new cases as the summer warms. Cases in the Republic could therefore shoot up as the North possibly has the herd immunity sought by the UK approach.

This is the best case scenario as the disease would simply ravage one part of the island though this assumes immunity to the current strand of COVID implies immunity, or at least some protection, against subsequent strains which may be wishful thinking.

It therefore seems best to assume, as some doctors already do, that it may be impossible to become immune to COVID. The landscape in a few months time could be one of skyrocketing disease contractions in the south which would increase contractions in an already strained north. Both healthcare regimes are struggling, a little more pressure could cause a collapse. It is no use allowing two states on an island the size of Ireland to follow divergent approaches to a pandemic. The people of Ireland deserve better.

 

Dysfunction in Irish Politics

The following article by Robert Tolan is useful to those in the mainland United Kingdom in an environment here in the UK in which the BBC fails to cover Irish politics (both North and South of the border) effectively. Many of us here do not even know that Ireland is about to have a general election, nor do most of us realise how utterly dysfunctional Irish politics is.

Leo Eric Varadkar is an Irish Fine Gael politician, and is the current Premier or “Taoiseach” of Ireland. Varadkar relied upon the support of Independents and the abstention of Fianna Fáil TDs (i.e. Irish MPs) to support his premiership. On 14 June 2017, he was appointed Taoiseach in a 57–50 vote with 47 abstentions. He became Ireland’s first openly gay Taoiseach, as well as the youngest. However a general election in Ireland is due. Varadkar has called a national election for 8 February. Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael closely matched with fellow centre-right party, Fianna Fáil, in polls.

In the 1980’s, Ireland’s Taoiseach, Charles Haughey, described the country as a, ‘land of strange happenings’. This was at a time of unprecedented violence and decay in the island’s institutions. At this time, effective Northern Irish politics did not exist, the bloodletting left no time for talk. Politics in the Republic also barely existed in what was effectively a one party state. The modicum of political engagement that did take place resulted in the Mahon Tribunal which exposed endemic corruption across all levels of the political apparatus.

Today, the situation is not much better. The Republic’s latest government, under Premier Leo Varadkar, was a minority one led by Fine Gael and supported by Fianna Fáil, and it collapsed as a no-confidence vote in the Health Minister, Simon Harris, appeared on the horizon (the government has failed to cure a dysfunctional health service that consumes huge resources but produces poor results). The latest Sunday Times poll places Fine Gael 12 points behind Fianna Fáil amidst widespread outrage at their inability to address the housing and health crises.  However, voters will be aware of Fianna Fail’s partial responsibility for the inaction of the last four years. They propped Fine Gael up with their confidence and supply agreement. Fianna Fáil’s leader, Michael Martin, will struggle to convince much of the electorate that things will change under his leadership. Martin’s challenge points to the wider problem of Irish politics, the two main parties are almost identical. They both enact conservative fiscal policies and mostly liberal social policies once in power. This means Ireland has really been a one party state since independence as all of its governments have been either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael led.

In a democracy, it would be typical to assume voters could choose the next largest party, Sinn Féin, but as ever, things are not that simple in Ireland. Sinn Féin is not yet free of its associations with dissident Republicanism and, to a populace that appears to favour low tax and low spend policies, their extremely left-wing economics may be too much to countenance. The national broadcaster, RTÉ, has decided to leave Sinn Féin, out of its leader debate which typifies the view that the party are fit for opposition but not for government. Due to Ireland’s system of proportional democracy, it is extremely difficult to gain an outright majority so this means haggling must be done after the election. Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael will have to negotiate with a litany of independents, a resurgent Green party and a Labour party whose flame is dying.

An unintended consequence of this quirk is the support of certain independents may be dependent upon resurfacing a by-road in a parish very few people have heard of, something that rankles with those committed to a modern Ireland.  It seems as if the major Irish parties are out of big ideas that can energise the country the same way independence did a century ago. Hopefully,  Ireland still is the land where what Haughey called ‘happy endings’ are possible.

Picture: the Cliffs of Moher

 

 

The Dysfunction of Irish Politics

In the 1980’s, Ireland’s Taoiseach, Charles Haughey, described the country as a, “land of strange happenings”. This was at a time of unprecedented violence and decay in the island’s institutions. At this time, Northern Irish politics did not exist, the bloodletting left no time for talk. Politics in the Republic barely existed in what was effectively a one party state. The modicum of politics that took place resulted in the Mahon Tribunal which exposed endemic corruption across all levels of the political apparatus.

Today, the situation is not much better. The Republic’s last government, a minority one led by Fine Gael and supported by Fianna Fáil, collapsed as a no-confidence vote in the Health Minister, Simon Harris, appeared on the horizon. The latest Sunday Times poll places Fine Gael 12 points behind Fianna Fáil amidst the widespread outrage against their inability to address the housing and health crises.  However, voters will be aware of Fianna Fail’s partial responsibility for the inaction of the last four years, they propped Fine Gael up with their confidence and supply agreement. Fianna Fáil’s leader, Michael Martin, will struggle to convince much of the electorate that things will change under his leadership.

Martin’s challenge points to the wider problem of Irish politics, the two main parties are almost identical. They both enact conservative fiscal policies and mostly liberal social policies once in power. This means Ireland has really been a one party state since independence as all of its governments have been either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael led. In a typical democracy, it would be typical to assume voters could choose the next largest party, Sinn Fein, but as ever, things are not that simple in Ireland. Sinn Féin is not yet free of its associations with dissident Republicanism and, to a populace that appears to favour low tax and low spend policies, their extremely left-wing economics may be too much to countenance. The national broadcaster, RTÉ, has decided to leave Sinn Féin, out of its leader debate which typifies the view the party are fit for opposition but not for government.

Due to Ireland’s system of proportional democracy, it is extremely difficult to gain an outright majority so this means haggling must be done after the election. Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael will have to negotiate with a litany of independents, a resurgent Green party and a Labour party whose flame is dying. An unintended consequence of this quirk is the support of certain independents may be dependent upon resurfacing a by-road in a parish very few people have heard of, something that does not rankle well with those committed to an ever modern Ireland.  It seems as if the major Irish parties are spent of big ideas that can energise the country the same way independence did a century ago. Hopefully,  Ireland still is the land where what Haughey called “happy endings” are possible.

    Picture: the Cliffs of Moher

Moving Beyond the Good Friday Agreement

Northern Ireland stands at a crossroads; one road leads to a future in an ever more precarious United Kingdom, the other charts the path to a united Ireland. In a parallel universe, one where the UK opted to remain in the European Union, this choice could be delayed, perhaps for a few decades; alas the choice must be made now.

The Good Friday Agreement was predicated on the UK remaining within the EU meaning upon its departure, parliament will have to decide whether to uphold the agreement. Failing to do so will leave Northern Ireland in the wilderness as Stormont has been, as of this writing, closed for 1,079 days. The Conservatives will want to avoid creating such a power vacuum as they paint, in broad brush strokes; the country’s trading relationship with the rest of the world. Failing to pass the necessary laws will cause the easel to collapse leaving Northern Ireland in uncharted territory particularly as the Nationalists hold the majority of seats in Stormont for the first time in its history and the Unionists are sharply divided on how to deal with this sudden change in fortunes. This change in the topography is not merely due to the growing Catholic, normally Nationalist, community bolstering Sinn Féin and the SDLP support but the advent of growing dissatisfaction within the Unionist movement as a whole with their traditional parties.

The DUP and UUP’s base largely voted in favour of remaining in the EU and they are far more socially liberal than the Arlene Fosters of this world indicating a growing disconnect between Unionist politicos and their erstwhile supporters. This scene is eerily similar to that which hung like a scepter over the Labour heartlands in the last election and could indicate a similar implosion in Unionist support is yet to come.

Perhaps it is time to take Frost’s “road less travelled by” and make plans for the border poll necessary for reunification as it appears unification is more inevitable than ever. However, the finished painting will be more Picasso than Rembrandt.

Picture: Stormont, the Northern Ireland Assembly